My Correct Poll Outcome Forecast Of 2004 Assembly Elections in Andhra Pradesh

 

I correctly analysed what the poll results would be. The assessment turned out to be accurate. On April 18, 2004, I wrote this report in The Times of India, Hyderabad.

The substance of the report was that the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) had reason to worry about its prospects of returning to power. The ruling TDP contested 267 seats in alliance with the BJP and won 47 seats.

The Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), formed in 2001, was contesting the Andhra Pradesh Assembly elections for the first time. The party was created to fight for a separate Telangana state.

It joined hands with the Congress and contested the elections held in April–May 2004. According to the analysis I made, the TRS had already proved its mettle in the panchayat polls held three years earlier, where it secured a vote share of 20 per cent.

Under the seat-sharing arrangement with the Congress, the TRS contested 54 seats and won 26. The Congress contested 234 seats and won 185.

Y. S. Rajasekhara Reddy of the Congress became the Chief Minister and inducted the TRS into the ministry.

Here is the report published on April 18, 2004 in The Times of India, Hyderabad edition.

A whole new T party

The TDP’s Telangana flank is vulnerable to a pincer attack by the Congress and the TRS. The vote share arithmetic in the region and KCR’s colourful campaign style have loaded the dice against the ruling party.

By Ch Sushil Rao

TIMES NEWS NETWORK

Hyderabad: The Telangana factor is the great unknown quantity in this election. It is threatening to tip the scales against the TDP with just two days to go to polling day.

While the other two factors — the naxalites and the Congress — are also buzzing around the chief minister’s head, it’s the T-word that has been the bee in his bonnet. TRS president K Chandrasekhar Rao has proved himself an ace rabble-rouser with a propensity to use sharp words to bring out the discontent pent up in the people of the region.

This is the TRS’s debut in a general election and no survey has been able to give it a weightage by which to assess its place in the electoral equilibrium. All we have to go by is the 7 per cent (20 per cent in Telangana) vote share the party received in the panchayat elections three years ago, when it was still in its nascent stage. Given the Congress’ 40.8 per cent in the 1999 election, it adds up to a frightful picture for the TDP.

TRS received 20% of the vote in the last panchayat elections

Telangana factor

Elections, however, do not lend themselves to such neat arithmetic, but the TDP has a worry on its hands.

KCR’s colourful language served several of his purposes. By hogging the media headlines, he has given the picture that his party is bigger than it is. This came in handy for demanding and getting a large share of the 107 tickets in Telangana.

Second, his personal attack on Chandrababu Naidu served to show the chief minister as a caricature and not the high visionary the TDP claimed he is.

The TDP’s ally the BJP has not been of much help in shielding the TDP from the TRS’s frontal attack. It is itself in a vulnerable position on the T-factor having abandoned a pro-separatist position it struck in pre-alliance days. Venkaiah Naidu’s remark that the Kakinada resolution is still in Kakinada did nothing to endear BJP to voters.

That there really is a strong Telangana sentiment sweeping across some districts, if not all, is evident from parties’ reaction to it. The Congress, not wanting to let the factor spoil its prospects, swung into action and forged an alliance with the TRS. BJP leader L K Advani, during his yatra in Telangana, changed his stance and said if there was a consensus, the BJP would favour a separate Telangana state. The Janata Party jumped onto the Telangana bandwagon and fielded candidates.

Even the TDP’s manifesto did not mention, if not a separate state, what it would do for the region.